The EU referendum rolls on and on.

VillageGreen wrote:

When the vote eventually arrives, I will vote to leave the EU. My reasons are more to do with the power that Brussels has and that of Germany really controlling the bloc, with France licking her butt.

Some EU politicians want the UK to leave, one of them is called Martin Shulz and he has made his views well known recently.

Should the UK leave the EU, then it could either be a complete horror story or a blessing in disguise. Only time will tell.

Cameron could go down in history as the PM who was in charge when the UK vacated the EU and also possibly seeing the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland fall apart and break up due to the above.

Amended.

Lord Tisdale wrote:

The "establishment" don't decide elections, the voters do, nobody with a brain is going to vote for doddery old fools like Jihadi Jez or Comrade Bernie.

I don't think anyone will be taking seriously the musings of the oracle that predicted Farage's rise to power last May. Some people just don't get it. None so blind, such is life etc.

Lord Tisdale wrote:

Amsterdamage wrote:

Yet again Tis you miss the point by a mile, the times they are a changin, not going to be changed by Milli, Corby, Nigey or some goddam American but people are looking for something a bit different hence the Corby landslide and these little blips against the mainstream safe bets. Sure he won't win an election because the establishment won't let him but the establishment is sounding very tired and more than a bit worried.
Anyway who really gives a feck who wins the primaries or the Whitehouse? Out of our control but one thing is for sure if the system doesn't change then the system will be replaced, how long do you give the present civilisation lasting at its present trajectory? Sure well be alright but I'm starting to worry about the grand kids already. The sad thing is where America lead we follow I would rather the UK follow a doddery old 79 year old with a social conciense than a billionaire warmongerer like trump but then I've always been a bit of a hippy.

The "establishment" don't decide elections, the voters do, nobody with a brain is going to vote for doddery old fools like Jihadi Jez or Comrade Bernie.

Not sure where the idea of Trumpy being a warmonger comes from, perhaps if you checked you are taking the correct meds.

I said that Corby was unlikely to be elected I was talking about the general mood swing of people who've had enough of the establishment and ou know it.
As for Trumpy "I'll cut the head off Isis and suck up their oil!" fairly war mongering, he was very vocal about stealing Iraqs oil when we were on our very own geehad at the time. So not only invading Iraq, the Stans and Syria but get followed in by Exon. I suppose you have to applaud his honesty as Blair never ever mentioned the oil although we know that's what a lot of the fuss in the sandpit is all about.
Trump is all for making everybody "pay" for this that and the other, sometimes in blood although this would be future leader doesn't like paying his own tax, he could get a job over here.

Old Trumpy doesn't believe in the redistribution of wealth whatsoever. Trouble is he doesn't see that market derived incomes and inheritance are just as much redistribution, as taxes dripping the other way down to the poor for food and a roof. Being overpaid is in effect society redistributing wealth. He would do well to understand we all come in with nothing and go out through the same door. Redistribution is the price that is paid to stop continual civil war. Almost all civilised countries at peace with themselves follow the principle. Perhaps he wants a ruck, a Syria on his own patch, some people do. Bet he thinks his side would win.
I've no idea if he could become a president. He might do. Depends on international events between now and November. But if that's possible, then it's also possible for Sanders, and for Corbyn in this country. It's all to do with global movements and momentums.

Lord Biro wrote:

Lord Tisdale wrote:

The "establishment" don't decide elections, the voters do, nobody with a brain is going to vote for doddery old fools like Jihadi Jez or Comrade Bernie.

I don't think anyone will be taking seriously the musings of the oracle that predicted Farage's rise to power last May. Some people just don't get it. None so blind, such is life etc.

Who got 4 million votes, a referendum and is now the face of the Leave campaign?

Rome wasn't built in a day and neither will the revolution be, this May UKIP have a decent chance of picking up a couple or three MSPs and more than a few MWPs, probability of that was zero as little as 12 months ago, progress my old sceptic. Should the vote go agin in the Ref then the sky is the limit for Nigey and his Kippers, lefty denial works for them almost as well as the muslim invasion.

They're also broke after chucking a load of money at an election that delivered one less MP than what they started with. Most sensible politicians are avoiding being tarred with the "leave" brush, lest they be cast as a swivel eyed loon. We aren't going to leave the EU, I'm not exactly overjoyed by that either but you only have to follow the money.

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Those odds have been narrowing for some time Hugh.

FY 310 wrote:

Those odds have been narrowing for some time Hugh.

Narrowing? What did they star at then FGS . Like with Scotland, where the bookies didn't waver once despite the jibber jabber about polls saying how closely run it would be, David Cameron isn't going to have a losing referendum as his legacy. Also notice how  the potential future prime ministers are falling into line, leaving only Iain Duncan Smith to wave the Brexit banner.

We're not leaving the EU, the tories are getting this out of the way early so they can concentrate on slashing more public services and ensuring that the public are so grateful they vote them in again.

The Tories aren't allowed to show any disfavour yet Huge, the whips are busy behind the scenes as we speak reminding cabinet ministers about mistresses, rent boys, expense claims ect. In a cople of weeks you will see how many "clean" Tory dissenters there are but remember the blackmailed ones and ones waiting for favour from the pm still have a free vote. Clammy is having a free ride at the moment but it won't last, the last few weeks before the ref is where it will get interesting remember that six weeks is a long time in politics and by June the Jungle will be bursting at the seams and more Syrian children will be bobbing around the Med.

Its not so much the ones waiting for a favour from this PM though Hammy, its the ones waiting for a favour from the next. Osborne and HAMeron have together installed themselves at back No. 10 & 11 with a slim majority despite their dreadful record in the last Government. What with an unelectable opponent, proposed boundary changes and rules on political funding they should barring any major mishaps have the next election sewn up. So what if the swivel-eyed and blue rinsed are up in arms. feck them. We've just won an election, you can always vote for someone else and although there was some concern that UKIP would be an obvious destination, it seems that their apparent rise was at least attributal to disaffected blue collar labour voters. So in short they know which side their bread is buttered.

That said, it does seem quiet for now and a lot could happen in 2 weeks let alone 2 months. Yet I don't see where the opposition is going to come from.

There are appaza a few cabinet ministers that will weigh in with a no vote, a lot of these people carry weight with the electorate, add these to the back benchers, the kipper and the Labour no voters and there is your opposition right there. With the migrant crisis worsening last summer the swingometer went over towards the no a bit more, like I say more of the same this summer will only add to it. I saw on the news today that a coalition is going to "crack down on the smugglers" at the same time as the "world powers" as they were described have announced a Jeremy Corbyn type ceasefire with not one of them being called a loon. If the flood of migrants can be stemmed for a few months then Hameron (like that one btw) may have a chance but a real exodus is hard to stop and the ceasefire is unlikely to hold for long if at all. Not only that there are a lot of people more concerned about fat cats and gravy trains and they aren't going away any time soon either.

The only Cabinet ministers definately confirm as out I beleive are Chris Grayling , Sajid Javid, John Whittingdale, Theresa Villiers and IBS. I don't think Joe Public would be to name any of them in a hurry. IBS and Grayling must win awards for Noolish keeping their status despite utter incompetence.

The flood of migrants is a tricky one to deal with, fist shaking policy responses by Theresa May appear to have done bugger all to stem the flow, in fact she has overseen record numbers of them entering the country. However we do want wealthy students from other countries living here because hardly any other bugger can afford higher education these days and to ensure people like my friend and yours Green Jim can sit on committees and build student accommodation for them.

I don't think ol' Huge gets out enough to have quite grasped the mood swing since Pig Porking Dave came home with nowt from taking the begging bowl to the leaders of countries our taxpayers have constantly to bail out.

People don't like to see their leader beg for table scraps from nobodies they have never heard of, EU leaders have treated us with contempt, most of them would be speaking German now if it hadn't been for us.

Add that to the actual arguments on the economy where the Remain case becomes ever weaker, the migration and immigration issues where they never had a leg to stand on, and the lead shown in the latest polls might well be in the bank.

In the death these are the things people will decide upon, just as long as the establishments scaremongering continues to be knocked down by the MSM.

No chickens are as yet available for counting, but I hear egg shells beginning to crack.

Lord Tisdale wrote:

I don't think ol' Huge gets out enough to have quite grasped the mood swing since Pig Porking Dave came home with nowt from taking the begging bowl to the leaders of countries our taxpayers have constantly to bail out.

People don't like to see their leader beg for table scraps from nobodies they have never heard of, EU leaders have treated us with contempt, most of them would be speaking German now if it hadn't been for us.

Add that to the actual arguments on the economy where the Remain case becomes ever weaker, the migration and immigration issues where they never had a leg to stand on, and the lead shown in the latest polls might well be in the bank.

In the death these are the things people will decide upon, just as long as the establishments scaremongering continues to be knocked down by the MSM.

No chickens are as yet available for counting, but I hear egg shells beginning to crack.

The funny thing is, I agree with you on having mediocre career jobsworths like Juncker having any say in British affairs. Plus having to chip in for countries such as Greece whose problems stem from the fact their leaders can't be bothered to collect tax. The TTIP is as good a reason in its own right.

The polls are irrelevant though, look at the last election and we were given loads of jibber jabber about how close the Scots referendum was, yet the bookies knew the score and didn't flinch once. Same thing will happen here.

Hugh Watt wrote:

The funny thing is, I agree with you on having mediocre career jobsworths like Juncker having any say in British affairs. Plus having to chip in for countries such as Greece whose problems stem from the fact their leaders can't be bothered to collect tax. The TTIP is as good a reason in its own right.

The polls are irrelevant though, look at the last election and we were given loads of jibber jabber about how close the Scots referendum was, yet the bookies knew the score and didn't flinch once. Same thing will happen here.

Junker is anything but mediocre, he has done a serious job for Lux and has feathered his own nest quite brilliantly.

Polls are polls, they tell you stuff, the problem is the numbers of people who think they know what they mean, particularly journos and pundits.

The poll I referred to showed an expected change, it could be an outlier, I shall wait for the next few for reinforcement and should it transpire that my thinking is confirmed then that will tip me just slightly into thinking Leave can actually win it, up until now I have believed that the weight of the establishment will be too much for Joe Public to go against.

Re the bookies, I backed Cameron to get a madge and Scotland to vote No. I haven't backed Leave.

I believe most opinion polls are corrupt these days. Too easy to manipulate, if you control the methodology and the wages. The "rogue" Scottish poll was particularly suspicious. Maybe their control groups have been skewed by doing the cheap option online/landline routine.
I had Ipsos Mori call on me yesterday as it happens. Nice big yellow letters on their clipboard. 100% of the conversation was "No thank you". Sort of wished I'd asked what they were polling, but then, I wasn't that interested.
It won't be long before the poll companies will be using the new semantics database thing, and presenting it as gospel.

When the last coalition government took power, the relevant minister stated it was about time the media, and in particular the BBC, started to reflect present government thinking more favourably. Haven't trusted anything in the public domain since. How sad is that.

Lord Biro wrote:

I believe most opinion polls are corrupt these days.

They're not corrupt Percy, the questions and responses are always available in the tables so you can check out the raw data then adjust the headline figures to take account of any pushing and pulling or demographic inconsistencies.

Therein lies the problem, when I am confused sometimes I foolishly ask a question of one of the children that are currently living with me, they have a couple or three phds between them including applied stats, the answers usually leave me with more questions than I started with, this sh1t is mucho complicated and unless you are prepared to spend some serious time getting the maths sorted you haven't really got a prayer.

I see the establishment have wheeled out the Windsor Dauphin to back the UK to stay in the EU. Of course, Willie boy and all the rest of the royals wouldn't dream, apparently, of entering the political arena, and his comments shouldn't be taken as a pro EU view . Yeah, all right. Pull the other one.
There will be a few irked little englanders today bemoaning the veiled intervention of one of their heroes. Willy's size twelves entering the fray might just persuade me to vote to get out. I still smile when I remember his glum face when he turned up at the World Cup decision fiasco expecting the formality of an English anointment. Maybe he should become our first King Jonah. Charlie's a giant compared to his son.

Word is that the "eastern Bloc" are going to thwart Cammys' no benefit rule, love the parlance already being used, bet Rollo is firmly onside after hearing of the red tide of communism flooding our sceptred isle, but if Dave says its cool he was never going to argue was he?

You shmucks are so stupid about Europe.

If the West weren't so arrogant when the 'wall' crumbled then we wouldn't be in this position.

What gave us the right to entice the satellite countries of the Soviet Union to come on over.

Talk about rubbing your nose in it. Is it any wonder Putin is hitting back. Crimea's back where it belongs and East Ukraine will follow.

For me, bigger states means bigger wars. As in Nuclear.

You Corbynistas and Cameroons are so dumb.

Rollo Tomasi wrote:

You shmucks are so stupid about Europe.

If the West weren't so arrogant when the 'wall' crumbled then we wouldn't be in this position.

What gave us the right to entice the satellite countries of the Soviet Union to come on over.

Talk about rubbing your nose in it. Is it any wonder Putin is hitting back. Crimea's back where it belongs and East Ukraine will follow.

For me, bigger states means bigger wars. As in Nuclear.

You Corbynistas and Cameroons are so dumb.

Sorry, did you have a point to make about the Brexit campaign or are you just a stupid schmuck?

The East Europe issue is a complete red herring, Russia had no problem with East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Jugoslavia, Czechoslovakia or any of the other occupied countries going West, they loved it as EU membership would build them as markets for Russia's natural resources. The Ukraine is different and their response shows it, the EU should have kept it's nose out, that facking useless whore Ashton has a lot to answer for.

The world wars involved a multitude of nations states, no "bigger wars" are likely again as nuclear wars serve no purpose for anyone that has anything, hence it is only the pith poor sh1t hole PRK that actually threatens it.

[quote="Rollo Tomasi"]You shmucks are so stupid about Europe.

If the West weren't so arrogant when the 'wall' crumbled then we wouldn't be in this position.

What gave us the right to entice the satellite countries of the Soviet Union to come on over.

Talk about rubbing your nose in it. Is it any wonder Putin is hitting back. Crimea's back where it belongs and East Ukraine will follow.

For me, bigger states means bigger wars. As in Nuclear.

You Corbynistas and Cameroons are so dumb.


Comon Rolly to really insult me you must decide what I am, I can't be a Red, A Corbynista and a Cameroon all at the same time, typical tory not getting his own way.

Hardly surprising the 4 countries whose economies are most likely to benefit from their migrants earning money over here to send back object.

Quote :

In other news: turkeys are still refusing to vote for Christmas.

It would be interesting to hear what ATD members, who live outside of the UK, have to say about this referendum and what the media coverage in the country they live in is saying, especially those in EU countries.