General Election Countdown who is going to win

SwimWithTheTide wrote:

Got my vote done, can we all go back to being friends now? 

Amen to that brother.

No fallouts that I noticed, a bit of abuse here and there but on the whole a thread I have enjoyed, thought provoking at least.

Ps. The least I want from this election is the tory scum being kicked out, whoever may make up the gov. Oh and out of Europe.

It's a feckin farce and no mistake, no party has actual support other than their dyed in the wool voters who vote what their parents did. I think the last government and this incumbent one will probably be the least supported we've ever had, something has to change.

Iggy wrote:

No fallouts that I noticed, a bit of abuse here and there but on the whole a thread I have enjoyed, thought provoking at least.

Nah, the opportunity to slag off gargs and lefties at the same time is far too much of an open goal to miss.

The point is both valid and moot, no party will get close to 40% of the vote or 25% of the electorate, for all the slagging both members of the coalition have had they did get over 60% of the vote between them, yes I know nobody voted for a coalition but that is hardly relevant, you vote for an MP who in turn represents you in the best way they can manage, if you don't like it you for somebody else next time.

This more than most elections is a fast breeder for discontent, I honestly believe that a huge swathe of England will absolutely abhor the possibility of Rab.C.Nesbit and his missus playing Ed for a muppet, I simply don't think he will take the risk of taking it on without putting out terms which the Sweaties will not possibly be able to accept. UKIP will get 12-15% of the votes and 0.5% of the seats. The Tories will get the most votes and seats and probably stay in office as a minority government but less than a third of voters will vote for them. The LibDems will get 8% of the votes and 4% of the seats. The Greens will get a million votes and just one seat, they should be happy because the Kip got a million last time and no seats at all.

I think the Tories and the SNP will finish up happy, the Tories as above, the SNP because Ed will give them a get out on not supporting them and the weak Tory government will be excellent for their aspirations to get a new referendum.

Me, I have got feck all to vote for, Pickles will win here, I could never vote for the party of Blair and Brown, not at least until they find some real socialist to lead it rather than the millionaires Ed, Ed, Yvette, Harriett, the Hackney Hippo and the rest of the Bolly quaffers, the Kipper is a knob, I really couldn't put an X against a LimpDim after the way the fooked over the town when they led the council, which leaves the English Democrats, quite an affable chap, Robin Tillbrook, who might get 500 sympathy votes.

It is true that this election basically comes down to a couple of hundred thousand voters in the swing seats, hardly any wonder that, despite the overkill media coverage, people are still in general pretty much disengaged.

My interest is more in the math and hoping that as many of the incumbent wankers as possible get unshipped a la Portillo, Clegg would be nice but that ain't happening, Nigey winning would be good, in fact any Kipper win. Esther McVay might be in trouble and that fork bucket Maria Miller who would be serving time now if she were a desperate single mother that had nicked a third of the money from benefits.

Gonna be a long night.

Iggy wrote:

Ps. The least I want from this election is the tory scum being kicked out, whoever may make up the gov. Oh and out of Europe.

No Tories, no referendum, so at least five more years and huge amounts of further integration into a federal Europe.

I reckon Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, Jeremy Hunt and Esther McVey are the likeliest high profile losers. We'll see.

As for the point re SNP in coalition appalling the English.... Well, they might. So what? They will have been elected democratically by the FPTP system so beloved of both Labour and Tory parties. They can hardly reject the fair outcome of a process they believe in so fervently and the SNP in coalition is no different to anybody else being in one.

Besides the rise of the SNP is in no small part because Westminster has pretty much ignored the Scots except for when they have been experimented on first like some sort of disposable guinea pig. I certainly don't blame them for rejecting the nationwide parties which have all, basically ignored their wishes for decades.

On a more serious note though I am very concerned about their Nationalism. No good ever comes of Nationalism. It isn't something that can be easily controlled and there can't really be "moderate" Nationalism. It just doesn't work like that.

The very worst outcome would be a solution that delivers a European referendum. If it happens disaster lurks at every outcome.

An "Out" vote would be economically disastrous but would probably be carried by English votes against the wishes of the Scots, Welsh and NIrish. What price the Union then? It'd only be a matter of time before it is finished.

An "In" vote wouldn't end the matter either. You only have to look at the rise of the SNP since their referendum. Let's not forget that they were hammered 55:45 only a few months ago and now look set for more or less a clean sweep of the Scottish seats. Ignore their wishes in the next Parliament and the Scots will feel even more disenfranchised but give in and they'll want ever more concessions.

Either way things could get nastier and nastier as time goes on. Somebody suggested to me recently that the UK could disintegrate like Yugoslavia did and I scoffed but the seeds are all in place for it to happen here.

As an aside to all of that there is huge irony in the "Conservative and Unionist" party being the one that sets in motion the end of the Union. A referendum confronts them with a huge paradox however it goes and much the same goes for UKIP because the Independence they want would result in the demise of the UK - they'd need another name, too.

Disagree about the exit from Europe being catastrophic for business, business would readjust and find its level pretty quickly it's just another lie told to us to keep the gravy flowing via the eurocrats.
As for the SNP being trounced that only happened because Cameron made promises to them that he broke post referendum, if they had known what they know now the outcome would have been different. Anyway we only have Nationalism because the Unionism that you so favour only delivers to the city of London and a few business hubs ala Brum. The fact the Cornish recieve less by about half per head for health education and roads the rise in nationalism is the only way they see for having a fair deal, repeat that for every rural area in the country, Wales and of course Scotland. Most people feel they are being fecked over by the rich and big business and unless this is addressed that look forward to more of the same.
If less people were more in favour of condemning the powers instead of accepting the argument that it could always be worse we wouldn't be in this position, Britain needs a feckin good shake up from top to bottom.

Nationalism is ultimately about more division and more barriers. As you suggests English Nationalism will break down into North v South, London v Everywhere and in turn those will break down into Cornwall v "England" or Yorkshire v Lancashire or Highlands v Lowlands or whatever. It legitimises any prejudice you can think of. All bigots are essentially Nationalist. There's no end to it because it is the wrong solution to any problem and will never work.

It's not a case of "we haven't had enough of it yet to make the difference" (which is exactly the argument for more austerity as well) it just won't ever work because it isn't the solution to anything.

I bet the same arguments were used about breaking up the Empire.

My postal ballot form didn't arrive. If I was in a seat where it'd make a difference, I'd be pretty bothered by that. As it is, it would have been a pointless vote for either Labour or the Greens, neither of whom have any real chance in this constituency. I'd probably have liked to have given more power to the punch of the Greens, but I don't really think a few of their polices make sense (although several others definitely do!); it would have more been a vote as I think where they are coming from is pretty solid.

I'm not sure why, in the 21st century, we particularly need to vote for candidates and/or parties. Surely we have it in our smart phones and the internet to vote on at least the biggest issues separately. One day we'll look back at the current system and be like WTF!?

shout out to the political whore cobi budge. lord knows he is going to struggle today voting for just one and not take a selfie of himself doing it.


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the real losers are those who dont vote (30%) they decide the outcome for the rest of us.
dont vote - lose a weeks benefit. simple.

The following was posted on my FB today by an old lady friend of mine, and to me it sums it all up. Democracy...much over rated.

"So I overheard 2 sales assistants in Boots- "So is it today the election?" "Don't know, is it, I've no idea who to vote for"... so thought I'd help (as I do), but neither of them knew which party is in government, or who the leaders are. The only party one of them had heard of is UKIP and she thought "that Ed" was their leader. It descended into even more bizarreness..... made me think: is this being repeated across the nation, and should voting require an I.Q. means test???

"They were sweet girls, but genuinely didn't have a clue. Some of the comments and questions were what I'd expect from a 2 yr old. But really lovely girlies and they thought I was SO clever cos I knew who the PM was and who was in power previously, and what the tax threshold is...!!! hahaa.... Bless."

Would say the C4 coverage will be good tonight, worth a watch.

Strong start from C4. Unfortunately it looks like there will be an advert break every 20 minutes.

Wow. What an exit poll result.

Terrible, terrible night for Labour.

bye bye nhs hello more food banks and zero hour contracts

HAHAHAHHA those exit polls!

Anyone else emigrating?

Cornish Chris wrote:

Anyone else emigrating?

Yeap i dont think i can surivive another 5 years under cutting cameron

On the plus side, it's now 23 years since the Conservative Party last won a majority.

Hard lines on the Lib Dems. The Tories haven't made much progress against Labour, they've just swallowed their coalition partners whole.

Labour down 19 overall - so, they must have won about 40 Conservative seats in England. Fingers crossed they've picked up the second Plymouth seat.

(Obviously, if the exit polls are right....)

Projected to be 2 UKIP and 2 Greens. Interesting.

Presuming Kipper #1 is Carswell in Clacton, I guess that means Farage is in trouble. Tim Aker (the UKIP candidate for Thurrock) has been ahead throughout.