General Election Countdown who is going to win

I have already voted [postal vote].

Looking forward to the debates of tomorrow and the days after.

There are good people in UKIP. It's lazy to categorise all of them as racist (btw, not saying that you have at all SWTT). The problem they've got is that they're a useful entity for various disaffected individuals to project their hopes onto. For some it's a libertarian idyll. For others it's old-fashioned socialism. For others - a minority - it's BNP-style fascism. Until they're given something to run, and make a mess of it (see the Green Party's administration of Brighton council), that's how they'll stay.

Having said that, I agree with SWTT - "I don't think they're a greater alternative to any of the other self-serving arsewipes available on the ballot sheet."

Cornish Chris wrote:

There are good people in UKIP.  It's lazy to categorise all of them as racist (btw, not saying that you have at all SWTT).  The problem they've got is that they're a useful entity for various disaffected individuals to project their hopes onto.  For some it's a libertarian idyll.  For others it's old-fashioned socialism.  For others - a minority - it's BNP-style fascism.  Until they're given something to run, and make a mess of it (see the Green Party's administration of Brighton council), that's how they'll stay.

Having said that, I agree with SWTT - "I don't think they're a greater alternative to any of the other self-serving arsewipes available on the ballot sheet."

I agree with this Chris, though I feel that BNP-style fascism isn't as much of a minority, though I concede that that's potentially me projecting my own emotions onto the reality of the situation. Like you say, without them having something to run then its tough to pick at them rationally and also defend them in the same stance - there's a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding the party. What I do see though, is numerous scandals emerging on an all too frequent basis of various members of the party sticking their foot in it with some racist or prejudicial remark - whether that's Farage saying he'd only welcome Christian refugees or Richard Blay threatening to put a bullet into an opposition Tory candidate after making several remarks regarding his ethnicity in order to evidence him as a disreputable candidate. "His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.". Sickening comments.

Like Iggy rightly suggests, UKIP aren't alone in being filled with disgusting dickheads. Look at the Labour prick that beat up that teenager in a corner shop. Its this rhetoric that UKIP are an alternative party for the people that I take umbrage to. Bollocks are they for the people, bollocks are they a better alternative. They're built on media scaremongering, on demonizing the lower classes who are without a voice to defend themselves. They're just as, if not more, self serving as the others. Like I said, I'm all for a radical shake up in British politics, but you're (A general you, not you Chris lol - same goes for the next couple) rocking the wrong boat if you reckon UKIP will help you.

Iggy wrote:

Surely a racist party would try and close ranks to protect a racist candidate ala BNP rather than sack them as UKIP does?

The long standing national parties Con/Lib/Lab.......will try and keep a closed shop.....the status-quo is all important to them......they know each others strengths and weaknesses.......UKIP as it evolves year by year could bring in idea's that could rock there stereotype existences.

Ukip as a reasonable new party will have growing pains and problems will be highlighted and magnified by the status-quo......every rogue ukipper that they disclose will be emphasised to the uttermost for maximum gain.

Ukip's main problem at the moment is that Nigel Farage outshines all others in the party....so that they look just a one man band......the two ex-Tories that joined them brought personal followings with them and that is why they got re-elected as UKIP MP's. Quality is required and until that happens UKIP are walking on a knife edge.

That is why Con/Lib/Lab are bringing out the big guns in Ramsgate/Margate/Broadstairs to desperately try to stop Farage get into the House of Commons......where he will start to rock the status-quo and call a spade a spade and show the weakness of the UK's position in the EU ,and how insignificant we are in the pecking order behind Germany.

If Farage doesn't make it then I fear for this Country.....another five years of the same...without any opposition worth it's salt to shake up the status-quo that exists.

Iggy wrote:

Surely a racist party would try and close ranks to protect a racist candidate ala BNP rather than sack them as UKIP does?

Or suspended them like the rest would.

SwimWithTheTide wrote:

Cornish Chris wrote:

There are good people in UKIP.  It's lazy to categorise all of them as racist (btw, not saying that you have at all SWTT).  The problem they've got is that they're a useful entity for various disaffected individuals to project their hopes onto.  For some it's a libertarian idyll.  For others it's old-fashioned socialism.  For others - a minority - it's BNP-style fascism.  Until they're given something to run, and make a mess of it (see the Green Party's administration of Brighton council), that's how they'll stay.

Having said that, I agree with SWTT - "I don't think they're a greater alternative to any of the other self-serving arsewipes available on the ballot sheet."

I agree with this Chris, though I feel that BNP-style fascism isn't as much of a minority, though I concede that that's potentially me projecting my own emotions onto the reality of the situation. Like you say, without them having something to run then its tough to pick at them rationally and also defend them in the same stance - there's a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding the party. What I do see though, is numerous scandals emerging on an all too frequent basis of various members of the party sticking their foot in it with some racist or prejudicial remark - whether that's Farage saying he'd only welcome Christian refugees or Richard Blay threatening to put a bullet into an opposition Tory candidate after making several remarks regarding his ethnicity in order to evidence him as a disreputable candidate. "His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.". Sickening comments.

Like Iggy rightly suggests, UKIP aren't alone in being filled with disgusting dickheads. Look at the Labour prick that beat up that teenager in a corner shop. Its this rhetoric that UKIP are an alternative party for the people that I take umbrage to. Bollocks are they for the people, bollocks are they a better alternative. They're built on media scaremongering, on demonizing the lower classes who are without a voice to defend themselves. They're just as, if not more, self serving as the others. Like I said, I'm all for a radical shake up in British politics, but you're (A general you, not you Chris lol - same goes for the next couple) rocking the wrong boat if you reckon UKIP will help you.

Todays society has taken on board the god of   "Political Correctness"   which personally is a noose around our necks.

You are not allowed to do anything that rocks the boat......they use the mantra of " Health and Safety" to bring us all into line......even to the extent of stopping conker games in the playground.....maybe if you wear a crash helmet and safety goggles and protect you knuckles with thick leather gloves you might get away with it......but only if that equipment has the correct kite insignia on it.

So what do I think about UKIP being called racist......Political Correctness sees talking about racism as a no go area...."OH... we can't talk about that subject"... it means your a racist if you have any other view than the politically accepted view....CODSWALLOP......to discuss such things doesn't make you racist......Immigration control is necessary.....we are a smallish island.....that has problems homing and looking after our present NHS needs for those that have lived here for years.....without strict vetting of our borders we cannot control those that come for the ride.....and many are being kept in near luxury in our prisons for crimes that should get them immediately thrown out of this country.......we are lucky that we are an island.....so border control shouldn't be an impossible task.......the Tory government talked tough on immigration.....but it is out of control...instead of tens of thousands it is now hundreds of thousands coming in every year.

Is UKIP racist.....no more than any other party....the difference is.....UKIP want to do something about it.

Being members of the EU means by law we cannot stop EU citizens flooding in....lets regain control of our borders by withdrawing from this club that wants total control over every part of our lives......not so much governed from Brussels but controlled from Germany would be a truer statement.

Given this is supposed to be a 'who is going to win' thread, and given that it's around 12 hours till the polls open, I think it's time we started predicting!

My predictions:
1) Large % of UKIP voters bottle it and go back to the tories (or in a small number of cases Labour). UKIP win 4 seats max.
2) Lib Dems will not lose as many seats as predicted, as Tory voters switching to Lib Dems to keep Labour out (Cleggy will hold on in Shef only because of this tactical voting).
3) SNP wallop Labour in Scotland.
4) We get another Tory-Lib Dem coalition, possibly backed by some small Irish parties/Sinn Fein not voting). Cameron's promise of a referendum on the EU magically disintegrates (much in the same way his promises of reducing migration, reducing national debt, not shutting Sure Start centres, and not re-organising the NHS, seemed to disappear when he got into power).

If the above happens I'll actually feel sorry for UKIP voters. Although I don't agree with UKIP, I do think we need a proper discussion (AND a referendum) on our relationship with Europe. I also don't agree with labelling their would-be-voters as racist. Unfortuantly I foresee no way in which a Tory government (especially back by the Lib Dems) is going to offer an EU referendum. The big money that supports the Tories isn't going to want any renegotiation on Europe - they'll just want to keep the status quo. It'll be another disheartening 'victory' for FPTP.

UKIP could get between 10&15% of the vote and easily have no seats at Westminster in a first past the post voting system.

If they get lucky they would be pleased with 3 or 4 seats especially if Farage wins......Cameron and Miliband must be lighting candles and praying that he doesn't.......having seen him get stuck in at Brussels regarding the new top man......asking who he was... and who are you.

i predict a narrow by the narrowest margin Tory win tomorrow. Who they choose to form a government with is the harder question as it will depend on how many seats ukip win or how many lib dem lose

Angry wrote:

i predict a narrow by the narrowest margin Tory win tomorrow. Who they choose to form a government with is the harder question as it will depend on how many seats ukip win or how many lib dem lose

They could always form a minority government don't forget.

A coalition with UKIP would run into serious problems, it would be a disaster.

zyph wrote:

SwimWithTheTide wrote:

Cornish Chris wrote:

There are good people in UKIP.  It's lazy to categorise all of them as racist (btw, not saying that you have at all SWTT).  The problem they've got is that they're a useful entity for various disaffected individuals to project their hopes onto.  For some it's a libertarian idyll.  For others it's old-fashioned socialism.  For others - a minority - it's BNP-style fascism.  Until they're given something to run, and make a mess of it (see the Green Party's administration of Brighton council), that's how they'll stay.

Having said that, I agree with SWTT - "I don't think they're a greater alternative to any of the other self-serving arsewipes available on the ballot sheet."

I agree with this Chris, though I feel that BNP-style fascism isn't as much of a minority, though I concede that that's potentially me projecting my own emotions onto the reality of the situation. Like you say, without them having something to run then its tough to pick at them rationally and also defend them in the same stance - there's a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding the party. What I do see though, is numerous scandals emerging on an all too frequent basis of various members of the party sticking their foot in it with some racist or prejudicial remark - whether that's Farage saying he'd only welcome Christian refugees or Richard Blay threatening to put a bullet into an opposition Tory candidate after making several remarks regarding his ethnicity in order to evidence him as a disreputable candidate. "His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.". Sickening comments.

Like Iggy rightly suggests, UKIP aren't alone in being filled with disgusting dickheads. Look at the Labour prick that beat up that teenager in a corner shop. Its this rhetoric that UKIP are an alternative party for the people that I take umbrage to. Bollocks are they for the people, bollocks are they a better alternative. They're built on media scaremongering, on demonizing the lower classes who are without a voice to defend themselves. They're just as, if not more, self serving as the others. Like I said, I'm all for a radical shake up in British politics, but you're (A general you, not you Chris lol - same goes for the next couple) rocking the wrong boat if you reckon UKIP will help you.

Todays society has taken on board the god of   "Political Correctness"   which personally is a noose around our necks.

You are not allowed to do anything that rocks the boat......they use the mantra of " Health and Safety" to bring us all into line......even to the extent of stopping conker games in the playground.....maybe if you wear a crash helmet and safety goggles and protect you knuckles with thick leather gloves you might get away with it......but only if that equipment has the correct kite insignia on it.

So what do I think about UKIP being called racist......Political Correctness sees talking about racism as a no go area...."OH... we can't talk about that subject"... it means your a racist if you have any other view than the politically accepted view....CODSWALLOP......to discuss such things doesn't make you racist......Immigration control is necessary.....we are a smallish island.....that has problems homing and looking after our present NHS needs for those that have lived here for years.....without strict vetting of our borders we cannot control those that come for the ride.....and many are being kept in near luxury in our prisons for crimes that should get them immediately thrown out of this country.......we are lucky that we are an island.....so border control shouldn't be an impossible task.......the Tory government talked tough on immigration.....but it is out of control...instead of tens of thousands it is now hundreds of thousands coming in every year.

Is UKIP racist.....no more than any other party....the difference is.....UKIP want to do something about it.

Being members of the EU means by law we cannot stop EU citizens flooding in....lets regain control of our borders by withdrawing from this club that wants total control over every part of our lives......not so much governed from Brussels but controlled from Germany would be a truer statement.

Which is what they have always wanted and why a majority of the British absolutely hate the thought of that.

In the world we live now, former German leaders [of the distant past] would be cook-a-hoop seeing Germany as powerful as she is now.

Don't forget the French either, they stabbed Britain in the back regarding the EU. In 1963 Charles de Gaulle said no to a British membership of the EEC. He went on to say that the British government lacks commitment to European integration.

The constantly growing EU political system of one for all and all for one, could be akin to a dictatorship of epic proportions, not just for now, but also for the future.

The arguments for staying in or opting out of the EU will go on and on and on. Should the Conservatives win tomorrow, then the UK public will get to vote on the issue in 2017. It would certainly cause a political minefield, especially with the minor parties, who wish to keep the EU benefits.

The Labour Party and the Lib Dems will not offer a vote on the subject full stop.

UKIP want out asap, but as they will not get into power, we can forget them [unless they formed a pact with the Tories].

If and when a vote on Europe takes place, then i believe the vote would be a very close call either way.

I am not anti-Europe, but i would much prefer it if the UK had some powers handed back.

On the subject of European immigration, why can't the EU put in a five year suspension of all movement of people. At the end of those five years, look at the situation in all of the countries and then act accordingly.

An idea like that would certainly help the UK in the short term.

ejh wrote:

Angry wrote:

i predict a narrow by the narrowest margin Tory win tomorrow. Who they choose to form a government with is the harder question as it will depend on how many seats ukip win or how many lib dem lose

They could always form a minority government don't forget.

A coalition with UKIP would run into serious problems, it would be a disaster.

UKIP will not get enough seats to help anyone.....votes will be spread too thinly...... not concentrated in any one area like the Lib/Dems.

SwimWithTheTide wrote:

Cornish Chris wrote:

There are good people in UKIP.  It's lazy to categorise all of them as racist (btw, not saying that you have at all SWTT).  The problem they've got is that they're a useful entity for various disaffected individuals to project their hopes onto.  For some it's a libertarian idyll.  For others it's old-fashioned socialism.  For others - a minority - it's BNP-style fascism.  Until they're given something to run, and make a mess of it (see the Green Party's administration of Brighton council), that's how they'll stay.

Having said that, I agree with SWTT - "I don't think they're a greater alternative to any of the other self-serving arsewipes available on the ballot sheet."

I agree with this Chris, though I feel that BNP-style fascism isn't as much of a minority, though I concede that that's potentially me projecting my own emotions onto the reality of the situation. Like you say, without them having something to run then its tough to pick at them rationally and also defend them in the same stance - there's a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding the party. What I do see though, is numerous scandals emerging on an all too frequent basis of various members of the party sticking their foot in it with some racist or prejudicial remark - whether that's Farage saying he'd only welcome Christian refugees or Richard Blay threatening to put a bullet into an opposition Tory candidate after making several remarks regarding his ethnicity in order to evidence him as a disreputable candidate. "His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that.". Sickening comments.

Like Iggy rightly suggests, UKIP aren't alone in being filled with disgusting dickheads. Look at the Labour prick that beat up that teenager in a corner shop. Its this rhetoric that UKIP are an alternative party for the people that I take umbrage to. Bollocks are they for the people, bollocks are they a better alternative. They're built on media scaremongering, on demonizing the lower classes who are without a voice to defend themselves. They're just as, if not more, self serving as the others. Like I said, I'm all for a radical shake up in British politics, but you're (A general you, not you Chris lol - same goes for the next couple) rocking the wrong boat if you reckon UKIP will help you.

Oh FFS get off your soapbox, the guy was a Kipper for months and a Tory for decades, not to mention that he actually did feck all other than gob off.

As people have pointed out this country is full of racists, thugs and nutbags, many of them in political parties, at least UKIP sling them out rather than protecting them like the SNP.

Flat_Track_Bully wrote:

Given this is supposed to be a 'who is going to win' thread, and given that it's around 12 hours till the polls open, I think it's time we started predicting!

My predictions:
1) Large % of UKIP voters bottle it and go back to the tories (or in a small number of cases Labour). UKIP win 4 seats max.
2) Lib Dems will not lose as many seats as predicted, as Tory voters switching to Lib Dems to keep Labour out (Cleggy will hold on in Shef only because of this tactical voting).
3) SNP wallop Labour in Scotland.
4) We get another Tory-Lib Dem coalition, possibly backed by some small Irish parties/Sinn Fein not voting). Cameron's promise of a referendum on the EU magically disintegrates (much in the same way his promises of reducing migration, reducing national debt, not shutting Sure Start centres, and not re-organising the NHS, seemed to disappear when he got into power).

If the above happens I'll actually feel sorry for UKIP voters. Although I don't agree with UKIP, I do think we need a proper discussion (AND a referendum) on our relationship with Europe. I also don't agree with labelling their would-be-voters as racist. Unfortuantly I foresee no way in which a Tory government (especially back by the Lib Dems) is going to offer an EU referendum. The big money that supports the Tories isn't going to want any renegotiation on Europe - they'll just want to keep the status quo. It'll be another disheartening 'victory' for FPTP.

1) If they bottle it they were not "UKIP voters".
2) The Dims will get 7% of the vote and 25 seats.
3) SNP get 48% and 42 seats.
4) There is no chance of a Tory-LibDem coalition.

The Tories will get more votes and more seats than Labour, Dave will shoot for keeping the keys through a minority government and Ed will not have the bottle to unseat him cos the SNP scare him shitless.

The dispiriting thing about this whole circus is when the dust has settled there will be a large proportion of the population who are very unhappy and so it goes on.

Tories win a few more seats than Labour, but can't put together a coalition that works.
Clegg and Farage both win.
Labour end the night with less seats in Scotland than the Tories.

Charlie Wood wrote:

The dispiriting thing about this whole circus is when the dust has settled there will be a large proportion of the population who are very unhappy and so it goes on.

Isn't that the norm with first past the post elections.....it has never been different since Parliament began.

Declaration times to look out for tonight:

2300 Houghton & Sunderland West Very safe Labour seat.  A couple of points of limited interest: firstly, the time they declare (last year they counted all their votes in 45 minutes), and secondly the size of the UKIP vote.

0100 Nuneaton Could be the first Tory seat across the line, although Labour are pushing them hard.

0200 Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown's old constituency.  Currently has Labour majority well north of 20,000.  If the SNP win this, it'll be a disastrous night for Scottish Labour. Lots of other Scottish results declare around this time, along with the four Belfast seats.  The DUP (and the Conservatives) will hope they take back Belfast East from the non-sectarian Alliance.

0300 Stockton South Ultra-marginal, currently held by the Tories. Labour need to win this. Exeter also declares around this time.

0330 Great Grimsby UKIP/Labour marginal.  UKIP also likely to win Thurrock around now.

0400 Warwickshire North Conservatives defending a majority of 54 over Labour.

0400 Doncaster North Ed Miliband will be the first leader of a major party to speak.

0400 Devon South West and also Devon West and & Torridge. The two Plymouth seats should also have declared by now.

0430 Sheffield Hallam Nick Clegg (probably) gets re-elected.  Look out for his pitch for another coalition.

0430 Witney David Cameron starts to make excuses at his count.  Douglas Carswell should also be comfortably re-elected in Clacton.

0500 Bradford West George Galloway should hold on in Bradford West.  Mark Reckless probably won't in Rochester & Strood.

0600 Thanet South D-Day for Farage.

Friday morning/early afternoon: the last results come in, most notably Lib Dem/Tory marginals such as Berwick-upon-Tweed and finally St Ives & the Isles of Scilly at about 2pm.

thats my x done and dusted for the 5 years

Angry wrote:

thats my x done and dusted for the 5 years

You reckon? I wouldn't bet against another election before Christmas.

Cornish Chris wrote:

Angry wrote:

thats my x done and dusted for the 5 years

You reckon?  I wouldn't bet against another election before Christmas.

not unless there is anarchy on the streets and we had that during this 5 year term in london and manchester.

Got my vote done, can we all go back to being friends now? 

I've been busy this morning buying po tickets and organising my mates stag night for a couple of weeks time, plant another and last row of spuds, do some shopping, may well vote in a protest manner then go for a pint this evo.