So on to day 3 which starts with the Jewson Novices Chase.
Dynaste for David Pipe is the hot favourite at around 6-4, and it has won all 3 chases he's competed in so far. It could be something special but I don't think it should be as short a price as it is.
Willie Mullins has two runners and this time Ruby Walsh isn't on his best horse. The one to concentrate on of his is Aupcharlie at 6-1, ridden by Andrew Lynch who is the retained jockey for the owner. This horse's form to me is every bit as good as Dynaste's, but is a much more attractive price. It's been second to Back In Focus and Tofino Bay it's last two runs, who were 1st and 2nd in the first race today.
With Willie Mullins horses going so well this swings it for me, but I am also thinking of backing Module as well at 12-1. This horse won a hurdle race at Cheltenham last year and Tom George is a shrewd trainer who does really well for a smaller stable, especially with chasers.
So I'm backing Aupcharlie and Module both eachway.
The 2nd race is a 3m handicap hurdle and look no further than the favourite Sam Winner for this. Trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh, it was 4th in the Triumph Hurdle 2 years ago where it was in 20th place 2 hurdles from the end, I backed it to win and watched as it flew past horse after horse and jst finished behind Grandouet and Zarkander, who both ran in the Champion Hurdle yesterday.
It got going far too late that time and this 3m iles will be much better. It was sent over fences but that didn't really work out and won a nh flat race last time out for fitness.
I think this is a really cracking price at 4-1 and I will be filling my boots
The Ryanair Chase next and I don't think it's as good a race as in some previous years. The favourite is First Lieutenant at 5-2 and it's been a bit of a nearly horse in it's big races although it has won at the festival before and was 2nd last year.
I have narrowed it down to 2 horses, Cue Card @ 3-1 and last years winner Riverside Theatre @ 6-1. Both have won here before and don't mind this in-between distance of 2m 5 furlongs. Riverside Theatre has had a couple of bad runs since winning last year but it was found he had severe stomach ulcers that have now been treated. It's the forgotten horse this year and I think it's good value at 6-1 so will be backing it to win and in a reverse forecast with Cue Card.
The World Hurdle next and it seems a bit of an anti-climax with Big Bucks out injured after winning it four years in a row and unbeaten in 18 races. If he wasn't injured nothing would get close to Big Bucks, but it means someone will get lucky and win a championship race.
The one horse with real class in the race is Peddlers Cross. 2nd in the champion hurdle in 2011, and a winner here in 2010, it was sent chasing last year and although it won a couple of races it lost in the very best races so it's now back over hurdles. The only issue is if it will stay 3 miles and I think it will.
At 10-1 I think it's a really good eachway bet.
Next is a tricky handicap that I have narrowed down to 3 from 24, but I won't be going mad unless I've already won a packet.
The favourite is David Pipe's Ballynagour at around 4-1 who has only had one race in Britain after winning in France a few times. It absolutely pissed it's only race by about 20 lengths eased down at the finish. It's been raised a lot for that but it had to be raised a lot to get into most races at Cheltenham, and it was entered for loads of races which says this is it's preference.
Hunt Ball won last year so easily and it was a bit of a fairy story the way it kept winning race after race so easily. The owner won £100k betting on it and did back it for the Gold Cup this year but it has stalled on soft ground. The ground is drying all the time and Hunt Ball just might lead all the way at around 8-1.
My final pick is Vino Griego, at 12-1, who went 18 races without winning until suddenly clicking and winning 2 good races recently, but these races were on soft or heavy ground so I'm going to wait and see what the official going is before making my mind up.
Another amateur riders race at 4.40, the Kim Muir, and it's another big field handicap that is hard to pick, but I do like the look of Super Duty at 5-1, which has the Irish Champion point to point jockey Derek O'connor on board. At bigger odds I also like No Secrets with a nice low weight with Ruby Walsh's sister Katy on board. At 12-1 I might back this one eachway and Super Duty to win.
The cross-country race that was postponed on Tuesday is the last if I bother having a bet. The favourite is trained by Enda Bolger who specialises in these races, Arabella Boy at 7-2. It looks a worthy favourite and I think Any Currency at 12-1 is a decent eachway price.
Good luck again.
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Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:25 pm
Just served to remind me why I stopped betting seriously on horses after losing a small fortune at Cheltenham 20 odd years ago in the days of Desert Orchid. 