The question is.......

can we win at least half of our remaining 19 games?. John Sheridan has stated that we need to do this, to ensure survival in the football league.
Lots of enthusiasm on here and PASOTI about Sheridans pre match statement which is certainly motivational and uplifting compared to what we have been used to, need I say more.
But the only thing that REALLY matters; is that he stated very calmly yesterday we need to WIN at least half of the games left. Do I really need to comment on the importance of the game tomorrow?

If he keeps up up aka's he will cheered by his adoring fans, and to be honest if he dosen't he wont get stick from me. but speccy might

We'll need about 26 points from 19 games.

9W and 10 others
8W 2D 9L
7W 5D 7L
6W 8D 5L
5W 11D 3L
4W 14D 1L

It is going to be tough. This is going to the very last game.

For some strange reason i feel very optimistic about avoiding relegation, i reckon we will finish six places off the bottom

Plymouth v Morecambe W
Southend v Plymouth L
Plymouth v Accrington W
Plymouth v Dag & Red W
Aldershot v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Oxford Utd D
Northampton v Plymouth L
Wimbledon v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Barnet W
Gillingham v Plymouth L
Plymouth v Bradford L
Plymouth v Fleetwood L
Chesterfield v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Exeter D
York v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Cheltenham L
Burton Albion v Plymouth W
Plymouth v Rotherham D
Rochdale v Plymouth D

23 points. Oh dear.

Plymouth v Morecambe
Southend v Plymouth
Plymouth v Accrington
Plymouth v Dag & Red
Aldershot v Plymouth
Plymouth v Oxford Utd
Northampton v Plymouth
Wimbledon v Plymouth
Plymouth v Barnet
Gillingham v Plymouth
Plymouth v Bradford
Plymouth v Fleetwood
Chesterfield v Plymouth
Plymouth v Exeter
York v Plymouth
Plymouth v Cheltenham
Burton Albion v Plymouth
Plymouth v Rotherham
Rochdale v Plymouth

Or we need to beat Wimbledon, Barnet, Aldershot, Accrington, York, D&R and Rochdale and get 5 draws. Rochdale in the last game is probably going to be a must win game if we are going to stay up.

Playoff challenge?

Last season it was Crewe in 7th place with 72 points but 71 would have been enough. We have 24 so would need another 47

16 W and anything
15 W 3D
14 W 5D

Its still a possibility,

Seriously though. If we can get 7 or more points from the next four games, I'll be confident in us staying up.

Tomorrow is a huge game.

My predictions give us 9 points in those 4 games and we still end up short.

prehaps if we're lucky

I wish Sheridan all the luck in the world but the odds are stacked against him. Hopefully we're still in with a shout when certain people feck off rock climbing with no wifi access #carefulhowyoufalloffkili

I reckon it all depends on how we do in the next 9 games. There's a fair few winnable games there if Sheridan improves us by a small amount. Southend away looks very tough but the other games in that run are the majority of our points for the rest of the season.

The last 10 games are much harder and we will be lucky to scrape the odd draw and maybe 1 or 2 wins. 7 of our last 10 games are against teams in the top 10 at the moment, and even the other 3 of our last 10 games are against sides probably thinking they are in the play-off hunt.

York are the lowest placed club at the moment in our last 10 games and they are 10 points ahead of us now, with a game in hand.

If we don't win 5 or 6 of our next 9 then I think we are in deep shit

I don't think our squad is bottom two but then I doubt Bristol Rovers believe they are either. If we can't beat Morecambe, Accy, Dags, Barnet et al at home then we'll end up where we deserve to be.

That said I've a good feeling about Sheridan. He needs it we need it. We'll be ok.

Greenjock wrote:

I reckon it all depends on how we do in the next 9 games. There's a fair few winnable games there if Sheridan improves us by a small amount. Southend away looks very tough but the other games in that run are the majority of our points for the rest of the season.

The last 10 games are much harder and we will be lucky to scrape the odd draw and maybe 1 or 2 wins. 7 of our last 10 games are against teams in the top 10 at the moment, and even the other 3 of our last 10 games are against sides probably thinking they are in the play-off hunt.

York are the lowest placed club at the moment in our last 10 games and they are 10 points ahead of us now, with a game in hand.

If we don't win 5 or 6 of our next 9 then I think we are in deep shit

Fair assessment Jock. SFD's predictions only have us lose 6 games out of 19 and still fall short.

The last 5 seasons the points needed to stay up have been:

45
45
48
42
43

In both the last two seasons there were plainly two teams far worse than the others as the team third from bottom on both occasions had 47 points and both relegation spots were filled with 2 weeks to go. It is therefore safe to assume (as there do not seem to be two gimmes) that we need 45 points to stand a chance of staying up.

21 points is a minimum, 24 points would make us probably the unluckiest team to go down in the last decade.

As a minimum we need 1.1 points per game over a 19 game period. We've only managed that in September and October with an average of 1.33 and even then we could only keep that up for 12 games. If you factor in November to make it a 17 game streak then we fall to 1 point per game and inevitable relegation. Our last 8 games have given us 0.75 points per game.

It's all about the Sheridan. If you believe that he can drag a performance out of largely the same group of players then it is absolutely possible although the stat that Jock outlines he is going to have to improve is our record against teams in the top half. Our last 10 games all fit this bill. In the 13 games we've played this season against teams in the top half we have won 9 points at 0.69 points per game. Sheridan's task, unless we go on a streak of wins in the next 6 or so games is to turn 9 points from 13 into at least 12 points from 10.

Everything points to our fate being in the games between now and the end of February. If I were a betting man in all honesty I would take the odds against currently on offer that we will be relegated.

I don't think you can predict anything. We lost last week and that was predictable yet as I turned my radio off with an air of indifferent acceptance, virtually all the other teams around us had won. If you'd had an accumulator on those results and slapped £10 on it, you'd have had a very happy weekend. It's going to be tight but luckily, we've got a lot of home games against teams languishing near the bottom. Unljckily, we've played two more than most of those teams. January is crucial.

Winning these early winnable (on paper) games can only make winning the later loseable (on paper) games easier. If the mindset is established that the team can actually win then we can win any game in this dogshit league. If you see what I mean.

hairy j wrote:

I don't think you can predict anything. We lost last week and that was predictable yet as I turned my radio off with an air of indifferent acceptance, virtually all the other teams around us had won. If you'd had an accumulator on those results and slapped £10 on it, you'd have had a very happy weekend. It's going to be tight but luckily, we've got a lot of home games against teams languishing near the bottom. Unljckily, we've played two more than most of those teams. January is crucial.

That may very well be the case Hairy but we're talking about trends across a two-three month period. If you average 1.3 points or above from a set of ten games then you're a mid table side. That's not unpredictability, that's form.

I agree that the next 3 home games plus Southend are crucial. Statistically we need at least 7 points from those games, confidence wise we could do with 9.

Charlie Wood wrote:

Winning these early winnable (on paper) games can only make winning the later loseable (on paper) games easier. If the mindset is established that the team can actually win then we can win any game in this dogshit league. If you see what I mean.

I'ts obvious from the first day that Sheridan has a completely different mindset from the clueless one, he has already clearly say "I know this league, anyone can beat anyone" and "I will play an attacking style of football" which is of course different from a passing game of football (with no end product).
IT CAN ONLY GET BETTER.

If we can get our noses out of the bottom two in the next four games I think that we will be alright, the other crucial factor is the teams with two games in hand dropping points in their games, if they win their games it will be very hard for us to drag ourselves clear. In short if we go into the final ten games in the bottom two I think we are fecked.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

Plymouth v Morecambe W
Southend v Plymouth L
Plymouth v Accrington W
Plymouth v Dag & Red W
Aldershot v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Oxford Utd D
Northampton v Plymouth L
Wimbledon v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Barnet W
Gillingham v Plymouth L
Plymouth v Bradford L
Plymouth v Fleetwood L
Chesterfield v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Exeter D
York v Plymouth D
Plymouth v Cheltenham L
Burton Albion v Plymouth W
Plymouth v Rotherham D
Rochdale v Plymouth D

23 points. Oh dear.

After yesterday we are 2 points down on my predictions. Those predictions resulted in an end of season total of 47 points. Now we are "on target" for 45.

Pokesdown wrote:

The last 5 seasons the points needed to stay up have been:

45
45
48
42
43

These are very worrying times.

one thing we all can rely on is that argo wont beat any of the teams around us, ergo BSP.

im glad fletch has gone, it would have only taken 1 point from any of the top sides and he would have been saved again, relegation or not. End of an era, i hope, but i cant see us surviving

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Purely coincidental, I'm sure!

I don't have a good feeling about it, I think we are relying to some extent on a couple of teams like Accrington continuing to drop like a stone, while we just do enough.