Argyle unlikely to win L2 title and main promotion rivals

Plymouth Argyle may have been 90 minutes from League One having reached the play-off final at Wembley, but the bookies are saying it is unlikely that Derek Adams can guide them to automatic promotion next season.

While the 2015-16 season has only just finished for the Pilgrims, with their retained list announced days ago, other clubs have wasted no time in starting to rebuild their squads for next season, and this is reflected in the betting odds.

Across the board, bookies already have Portsmouth as favourites to win the League Two title outright, and they are priced at 5/1 with SkyBet. However, perhaps surprisingly, the same bookmaker believes there are another SIX clubs who are considered more likely than the Pilgrims to lift the trophy in 2017.

The usual bookies prediction.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

The season is only just over for Plymouth Argyle, who saw their campaign extended by reaching the play-off final, but their rivals are already well into planning for the 2016-17 League Two season.

Having reached Wembley only to be defeated by AFC Wimbledon, and finished in the top seven for two years' running, Argyle will be considered among the contenders for promotion.

Much, of course, depends on how many of their squad re-sign for next season, as 13 players were offered deals in this week's retained list, but have a month to consider.

But after a rollercoaster promotion race which saw Northampton Town, Oxford United and Bristol Rovers gain automatic promotion, who are Argyle's main rivals?

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

What a surprise, Pompey favourites AGAIN.

More sustainable progress from the Brentmare, will lead to a sixteenth place finish which will be good enough for the usual Deadheads.

may aswell not bother then if the bookies say we cant do it. not like they are never wrong is it?

Nothing will change at homepark next season, same neglected ground, same ancient Grandstand, same superfans bucket rattling, same small underfunded micro squad, but dont worry its called sustainable progress!

I have got over Monday now, disappointed at the typical Argyle "no show".

I have no idea as to what Argyle will do next season, as much as I would like Argyle to go up in automatic, you just do not know. Would I take the Play-Offs again, probably (third time lucky and all that).

Will I go next season, probably make the effort go to the home games against the sides that have come down and the two that came up, plus Pompey and Exeter. I may do one or two away games. The rest I will not bother with.

I admit I am not looking forward to yet another season in L2, it is soul destroying mind numbing.

After the game on Monday, itv interviewed me and I said all the blame lies at the feet of James Brent. It was not shown on the tv though.

Geddon Village, all we can do is try and spread the word.

sufferedsince 68 wrote:

Nothing will change at homepark next season, same neglected ground, same ancient Grandstand, same superfans bucket rattling, same small underfunded micro squad, but dont worry its called sustainable progress!

Yeah we might finish 4th next year and only lose 1-0 at Wembley. [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

There will be a reaction next season and I can see bottom 8 come the end.

SNAFU whilst Jimmy remains in charge

Amsterdamage wrote:

Geddon Village, all we can do is try and spread the word.

I was stood by the Bobby Moore statue waiting for my mate who was the driver for the day, the woman who was in the car with us was also waitng too.

The reporter walked over asked her what she thought of the game and she said she was gutted. I chipped in and said i left when AFC took the lead, i went on to say it was a shocking display. I then said it was all the fault of James Brent, as he did not back the manager when it was needed , stating that Argyle should have gone up in an automatic spot had Brent played ball.

Over the road there they are still whinging about what happened last week. Time to move on and forget the match, we failed and that is that.

I would like to think Adams has a bit more umpfff up his whatever coloured jumper it is next year.
So much depends on him, and the three players already reportedly taken under wing. Not a lot to build a club on though. I can see a Sheridan happening, but not until the end of next season.

I think that if we have a slow start the knives will be out for Adams very quickly. Even if we have a 20 point lead at Christmas the cynicism caused by this years capitulation will make it a very uncomfortable season.

There isn't much point paying much heed to the bookies' prices at this stage.

They set their prices according to how much money has gone on to each option and since we were the last ones to know what division we'll be in next year there's been less time, hence less money, going on to us resulting in our price being longer than it probably should be.

If anybody is inclined to place a bet that takes a year to pay out then the odds for us right now are probably the best, i.e. longest, that they are going to get.

Sorry to quote myself - history says the chances of us going up are small so the bookies have it kind of right

Dougie wrote:

Statistically what happens now is that we have a 6 in 29 chance of being promoted next year with a 3 in 29 chance of gong up as Champions.  

At least that's what looking at the performance of the losing finalist in the past 29 playoff finals show happening in the following season.

6 in 29 ~ about 1 in 5 ~ about 4/1.

3 in 29 ~ about 1 in 10 ~ about 9/1.

Actual Skybet odds are currently 12/1 to win the title and 100/30 to be promoted.

So, in comparison to Dougie's hypothesis, the odds currently on offer are generous.

If you are inclined to place a bet on us being Champions then now is the time to do it.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Wycombe and Notts Co look like the best bets to me.

Relegation would be a better bet.

I put this on a thread about 'year on year progress' on PASOTI.

X Isle wrote:

If we're talking year on year progress then there is categorically only ONE way that can end next season - PROMOTION.

We've done survival.
We've done comfy mid table.
We've done losing in the PO S/F.
We've done losing in the PO final now.

All there is is either automatic promotion or WINNING the play-offs, anything else is going backwards.

Today (Wembley) showed us that the play-offs can't be relied upon as a safe means to go up. It's too easy to have a bad day at the office and/or find yourself playing the part of pantomime villain in someone elses fairytale.

It has to be automatic promotion and the board have to do their part to give it the best possible chance. Nothing is guaranteed and I know and trust they won't break the bank. But all available funds need to go to Derek Adams so he can replace our chaff with more wheat and have enough spare wheat to fill in when injuries strike.

DA also needs to spend the summer researching the tactical manual on scoring goals. But give him the tools to deliver on what he finds in those manuals.

Clearly I don't share the levels of cynicism found on ADT and clearly I have more patience and understanding as to the whole situation we've been in since 2011. But I'm not completely without objectivity and (by my standards...you crossed the crossroad years ago ) we're at a crossroads, as further explained on another post...

X Isle wrote:

1) Not as open and transparent as i'd like.

2) Investment now needed in the team now to make the next step.

I support the basic principle of self sufficiency, and James Brent was absolutely the right person to steer us through the last five years...in the absence of anyone else (who wasn't Peter Ridsdale) and the need to reign in spending and service debts.

But, and in no small part precisely DUE to his steady stewardship, we're a very different entity to the post administration basket case club he took on. We're at a crossroads.

Is he the right man to steer a now stable and improving club on to being a successful club?

I don't know. I need convincing that the two issues I have with him listed first on this post are going to be improved as we go forwards now...more transparency and (without going nuts) more funds for the core business.

He was the right man in 2011, I am grateful he was there. But it's 2016 now and that gratitude isn't open ended. Five years from now in 2021 (but probably much sooner) I will be decidedly ungrateful if we're still having to read between the lines to work out Argyle's financial structure, budgets and loans and we've still not pushed on from league 2.

I've been patiently understanding of our position, i've been supportive of the basic model of how the club is run. JB needs to start delivering some reward for that patience, understanding and support.

If he can't deliver then the best thing he could do for us all is proactively look for someone who can.

So this close season and the start of next season is key for me. The retained list was a surprise, not necessarily a bad one, but only if this seasons 'not quite good enough' squad being retained is a 'base camp' onto which a greater number and greater quality of player is to be added. If we're just going to go again with the same players then the same end result is clearly going to occur.

I can see why these odds have occurred, after all we only have, what?, three players contracted for next season? I am sure the majority of those offered contracts will re-sign but even then the difference to our season will be those coming in and how can bookies accommodate unknowns into their forecasts?

Big task ahead therefore this summer and autumn, I trust DA to be able to find the players to take us to the next level. I am less trustful of the board to finance them. But finance them they must because more of the same will result in the first dip in (however slow [see earlier observation about patience and understanding]) progress.

I fear that any of the transient journeyman who sign up again will only be doing so in the absence of any better offer or even no other offer at all. Hardly fills one with confidence. An interesting few weeks ahead although experience tells us not much happens at HP until a week before the season starts.

I wish people would stop confusing retained list with players confirmed to be staying.

Patsy Kensit was on my retained list a few years ago but sadly she turned down my derisory contract offer.

Until the player commits by actually signing a contract they are a free agent in 24 days time.

No confusion DT, indeed no-one may re-sign hence only three contracted players...which makes the odds very generous

The retained list is however a statement the club is happy with their contribution and prepared to go again with them. My observation is merely that if that's the plan in it's entirety, without better quality additions and a bigger squad, then it ain't gonna work.

We could get to Wembley, lose in extra time and maintain year-on-year progress.

We could get to Wembley and lose on penalties to maintain y-o-y p for another year.

Or in terms of league position we were 7th last year, 5th this year and could finish 4th next to maintain y-o-y p.

The great defining and unifying factor for all of those who are pro-Brent has been "he saved the club" - but saved us to what purpose?

We've endured 5 years now in a division that we should never have been in to start with. If we don't go up next year it'll be 6 and by beating us AFC Wimbledon went from nowhere at all to L1 in 12 years!

Using them as a yardstick is it not reasonable to assume that in 5 years we might have risen, say 3 divisions?

So what is 3 levels below L2? Immediately below is the Conference where Torquay are. Below that is the Conference South where Truro are. Below that Southern Premier League where Bideford are.

Does anybody really, truly believe that is impossible that AFC Argyle wouldn't be exactly where we are now and be debt-free, supporter-owned and possessed of the same pious levels of integrity and honesty and with more openness and transparency than anybody could wish for other than AFC Wimbledon?

Just what did James Brent save us from that was worth avoiding?

... and if you want to see blatant cynicism just take a butcher's at Brent's failed HHP plan.

Just think if he had had his way the only way we'd ever see 15,000 Argyle fans in one place again would be at Wembley.

Is it any wonder we're cynical?

I take your point SFD, but for me there are far too many if's, but's and maybe's in that 20/20 hindsight view on things.

I'd sooner look at the situation as is, than the situation as might have been.

And let's not forget this is the easiest League to get out of - 3 automatic promotions places and 1 playoff winner is not available anywhere else in the football pyramid. Our time in the bottom division of the English professional structure have seen nearly half the teams (numerically) promoted.

A lot of backtracking and worm turning going on.

X Isle wrote:

The retained list is however a statement the club is happy with their contribution and prepared to go again with them.

Well, woopedy doo. At this juncture I will always remind folk that employment is a two way contract, for all humans, but especially for those employees that have any sort of head on their shoulders that might be remotely hunted. I wonder just how many of those players are actually happy about the contribution of the employer, J Brent Esquire.
Just what we don't need is a bunch of journeyman resting their boots awhile on the best deal they can get in the now time honoured Roobs tradition. If one thing was lacking this season, it was consistent commitment to the club cause, but then it's quite difficult to work out what the club cause is. these days, outside of an investment for one man.