What next?

pepsipete wrote:

You can never see Argyle winning at all!

Or even wanted us to win.

Three points tomorrow and it's difficult to see how we can't get promoted, even Carl Fletcher would get us over the line.

Coxside_Green wrote:

Three points tomorrow and it's difficult to see how we can't get promoted, even Carl Fletcher would get us over the line.

I hope that doesn't end up on the Daftest Argyle Related Comments thread

steveinspain wrote:

Coxside_Green wrote:

Three points tomorrow and it's difficult to see how we can't get promoted, even Carl Fletcher would get us over the line.

I hope that doesn't end up on the Daftest Argyle Related Comments thread

I think any findings from the resulting inquest would override my comment

We have played 30 league games and have 59 points.

So what do we need to do, other than keep winning, in our final 16 games?

Here's a summary of the point totals reached over the last 10 seasons for teams to get the last play-off spot, be promoted and win the league. It doesn't record the lowest total that would have done for each which in some cases would have been lower but it suggests a benchmark for what might need to do.

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Using these figures in our next 30 games we need to hit:

Play-offs

Min 7pts (3W + 1D)
Max 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Mean 12 pts (4W)

Promotion

Min 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Max 29 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)

Champions

Min 24 pts (8W)
Max 38 pts (12W +2D)
Mean 29 pts (9W + 2D)

Accrington currently in 4th place are 10 points behind but have 18 games to play.

By the same reckoning they need:

Play-offs

Min 30 pts (10W)
Max 42 pts (14W)
Mean 35 pts (11W + 2D)

Promotion

Min 42 pts (14W)
Max 52 pts (17W +1D)
Mean 46 pts (15W + 1D)

Champions

Min 47 pts (15W + 2D)
Max 61 pts (unachievable)
Mean 52 pts (17W +1D +0L)

Promotion

Min 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Max 29 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)



It's worth remembering that these figures are based on the totals achieved by the teams finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th. All that was really required was to beat whatever the team finishing 5th scored so there is a little safety in-built but it probably isn't that significant.

The minimum probably won't do.

The mean score would see us promoted 50% of the time.

We'd be very unlikely not to go up if we achieved the maximum.

So what might we actually need?

My gut instinct is that (Mean + 3) would be enough. So that's 26 points - 8W + 2D.

My more cautious side suggests halfway between the mean and maximum. That's also 26 points!

Unless, like Northampton have just done, we hit a run of 8 wins in a row (the streak currently stands at 1) we'll probably pick up the 2 draws before the 8th win so our 8th win, from now, could be where we get promoted.

That means the next 10 games are unlikely to see us promoted. After that it becomes increasingly likely. Our last 6 games are:

Luton (H)
Morecambe (A)
York (H)
Exeter (A)
Wimbledon (H)
Pompey (A)

Again taking the halfway point that means we could be promoted at home to York or away at Exeter.

There you have it. There really is a very good chance that we get promoted at Exeter!

Top work Franny, looking forward to Exeshitter now

I hate going there and would rather not bother to be honest. Looks like I'll have to reconsider this year.

It's an extremely long-winded way of saying win half our remaining games to go up, isn't it?

And the mean points needed to clear 4th over that 10 seasons is more like 80, so 8 wins for 83 points should be enough

Innocent Egbunike wrote:

It's an extremely long-winded way of saying win half our remaining games to go up, isn't it?

I prefer "evidence-based" to "long-winded". Much more affirmative and far less perjorative.

Sir Francis Drake wrote:

We have played 30 league games and have 59 points.

So what do we need to do, other than keep winning, in our final 16 games?

Here's a summary of the point totals reached over the last 10 seasons for teams to get the last play-off spot, be promoted and win the league. It doesn't record the lowest total that would have done for each which in some cases would have been lower but it suggests a benchmark for what might need to do.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Using these figures in our next 30 games we need to hit:

Play-offs

Min 7pts (3W + 1D)
Max 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Mean 12 pts (4W)

Promotion

Min 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Max 29 pts (9W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)

Champions

Min 24 pts (8W)
Max 38 pts (12W + 2D)
Mean 29 pts (9W + 2D)

Well that's the 2 draws out of the way.

14 games to go. We have 61 points.

Play-offs

Min 5pts (1W + 2D)
Max 17 pts (5W +2D)
Mean 10 pts (3W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 17 pts (5W + 2D)
Max 27 pts (9W)
Mean 21 pts (7W)

Champions

Min 22 pts (7W + 1D)
Max 36 pts (12W)
Mean 27 pts (9W)

We still probably need 8 wins - maybe 7 and the draws will do the rest.

13 games to go. We have 64 points.

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Play-offs

Min 2pts (2D)
Max 14 pts (4W +2D)
Mean 7 pts (2W + 1D)

Promotion

Min 14 pts (4W + 2D)
Max 24 pts (8W)
Mean 18 pts (6W)

Champions

Min 19 pts (6W + 1D)
Max 33 pts (11W)
Mean 24 pts (8W)

We still probably need 7 wins - maybe 6 and the draws will do the rest.

We lost automatic promotion at Crawley and Yeovil. We're now completely relying on Accrington losing/drawing their 2 games in hand but the reality is they'll most likely win both of them. It's the misery of the play-offs for Argo.

Last ten games we've harvested 18 points or 1.8 pts per game on average, 13 games left 23.4 pts rounded down will give us 23 added to our 64 pts is 87 pts should be enough to get us promoted.

That will be plenty, if we can keep it up. Oxford and Accy will be interesting. If we do manage to win those two (I don't see it - at this stage I'd take two draws) we'll be laughing.

And Freathy, I quite like your turn as ATD's Eeyore, but if Accrington win both games in hand, we'll still have 2pts on them.

MikeWN wrote:

That will be plenty, if we can keep it up. Oxford and Accy will be interesting. If we do manage to win those two (I don't see it - at this stage I'd take two draws) we'll be laughing.

And Freathy, I quite like your turn as ATD's Eeyore, but if Accrington win both games in hand, we'll still have 2pts on them.

Not after they muller us 2 - 0

Lose to oxf and accies and theres no margin for error......

Too long we've made excuses for not winning games, "There's no such thing as a must win game" is bolloxks. At the very least Oxford and Accy are must not lose games to be worthy of promotion you have to beat those teams around you. We've all beaten the crap teams and it comes down to us and them toe to toe, bring it on I want it out the way now.

We must beat Oxford and Accrington no ifs or buts if we want to certain of having one of the remaining 2 automatic promotion spots. No point in writing 3 automatic spots as Northampton have pretty much won the title already bar any serious drop in form

If my reckoning is right then 85 points should be enough to be promoted. Northampton currently have 74 so they need another 11 points from their remaining 13 games. Should be a doddle.

The only thing that will stop Northampton now is a bus crash.

11 games to go. We have 65 points.

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Play-offs

Min 1pts (1D)
Max 13 pts (4W +1D)
Mean 6 pts (2W)

Promotion

Min 13 pts (4W + 1D)
Max 23 pts (7W + 2D)
Mean 17 pts (5W + 2D)

Champions

Min 18 pts (6W)
Max 32 pts (10W + 2D)
Mean 23 pts (7W + 2D)

We still probably need 6 wins - maybe 5 and the draws will do the rest.

Does anybody have a differing methodology for setting a target we are likely to need better than this one?