Starts tomorrow with three Group One races, followed by a Group Two.
Animal Kingdom is the favourite in the first after wins in the Kentucky Derby and the richest race in the world, the Dubai World Cup.
It's unusual for American trained horses to come to Ascot, although AK's trainer is English born Graham Motion, and this has been long odds on for this race for the last couple of weeks as it's main rivals have pulled out, leaving it easily the highest rated in the race. This time last year Frankel won this race by 11 lengths and although there's nothing of his quality around anymore, Animal Kingdom is the superstar of older horses in the world at the moment.
All of a sudden though his odds have started to drift and you can now get evens just about anywhere for it. This can only be due to the fact that it's travelled so far or negative reports from the trainer because on all known form it should win comfortably.
Paddy Power have been very vocal about their opposition to Animal Kingdom though and are giving an amazing special on the race where you get back any losing win bets on the race if the favourite wins! So you can have a bet on whatever else you might fancy in the race and if the favourite runs like it should you still get your money back as a free bet.
This makes it worth looking at eachway shots in the race. You have the chance to back the winner if there is anything wrong with the favourite, and your horse could get placed behind the favourite, so you get your place money and your win stake back if Animal Kingdom wins.
On that basis I think an eachway bet on Elusive Kate at 7-1 and Trade Storm at 12-1 is worth a go.
The Kings Stand Stakes at 3.05 is a five-furlong sprint where the favourite is Shea Shea from the South African Mike De Kock's stable. This horse was blisteringly fast in Dubai over the winter, winning twice and breaking the track record by a long way. If it runs like that tomorrow it's a foregone conclusion but it does either run brilliantly or total crap and at odds of around 5-2 in a 19 runner mad dash for a horse running in Britain for the first time are skinny odds.
I do like Reckless Abandon at 5-1, who gets weight from all the other horses and has been the stand out sprinting prospect of the last year. In the Temple Stakes last time he ran against older horses for the first time and just lost out in a photo finish to Kingsgate Native, despite racing on the wrong side really, as all the highest finishers raced on the opposite side.
With that run under his belt I will be doing Reckless Abandon eachway with a reverse forecast with Shea Shea just in case the favourite blows the rest away.
The St James Palace Stakes at 3.45 should be a cracker. Dawn Approach who ran a stinker when favourite for the Derby after pulling too hard and not settling, goes back to shorter distances where it was unbeaten before the Derby.
If Dawn Approach runs like it did winning the 2000 Gunieas by 5 lengths then it should win, but watching it run so badly in the Derby will put many people off. It's either the bargain of the week at 6-4 or it's way too short for a horse that looked terrible last time out.
The main dangers are Magician who won the Irish 2000 Gunieas really comfortably and is definitely an improving horse in form, and Toronado who had been unbeaten up until he ran disappointingly in the 2000 Guineas where it was second favourite behind Dawn Approach.
For me it's a straight choice between the Derby flop Dawn Approach who was amazing until failing in the Derby, and the rapidly improving Magician who looked ordinary until this year where it has blown the opposition away. Both won 2000 Guineas, DA the English and Magician the Irish, and DA has definitely beaten better horses, but Magician looked very, very impressive last time.
Magician did have a little injury setback last week which isn't ideal but I don't think Aiden O'Brien would run him if he wasn't 100% fit.
I just favour Dawn Approach as it ran too badly to be true in the Derby and if it were anything other than just not being suited to Epsom and the distance I don't think it would be running again so soon.
The Coventry Stakes at 4.25 is a good race for following stats with favourites doing very well. There have been some very good horses who have won this before going on to be top class, Dawn Approach won last year.
Aiden O'Brien has won this race 6 times now in the last 15 years and he has the favourite, Stubbs, and the second favourite Sir John Hawkins.
Stubbs is the choice of Joseph O'Brien who is the stable jockey, but Ryan Moore rides Sir John Hawkins and he has won some big races on O'Brien horses in the last few years and sometimes when they are not supposedly the stable number one, like Ruler of the World in the Derby.
I do like Joseph O'Brien as a jockey but he's not as good as Ryan Moore and doesn't seem to have a back-up plan if the race doesn't go according to plan. On that basis Sir John Hawkins at 5-1 is my tip.
I would love Lady Cecil to win the 5.00 with Tiger Cliff which is favourite at around 6-1, and it might well do, but I do like the chances of Big Easy at around 10-1. Trained by Phillip Hobbs it is really a hurdler but it did win two flat races in France in the past and now that it has started to run well over fences it is race fit and could be a real handicap snip. It's already being backed in from 12-1 to 8-1 in places and I think it's well worth an eachway bet at that price.
I don't really like the last race much, but there is an American horse running, Ogermeister, and the stable won this race in 2009 so it could be significant that they're bringing it all the way over. If I'm winning loads I might have a bet on this at around 7-1 or My Catch for the really up and coming Brown stable with Jamie Spencer on board at around 14-1.
Hopefully a nice few quid to be won this week
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Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:48 pm
