JEPHCOTT VALUE

Just been thinking about what Luke might be worth in the transfer market.

Maybe a good comparison could be Ollie Watkins who went from E*****r to Brentford to Villa.

He played a total of 78 times for City and scored 26 times, 68 league appearances with 21 goals - over 3 seasons.

He went to Brentford for a fee reported to be £1.8m but it was never officially disclosed.

City put a sell on clause of 20% in the agreement so they got a further £5.6m when he was sold to Villa for £28m. This is due to rise to £33m subject to appearances etc so it is possible City will get more cash from the sale further down the line.

First thing to say (I can cope with the slings and arrows which might come my way) - I think City have been far cleverer than us in terms of sales of youngsters over the last few years. I accept the argument that they are a smaller club than us and owned by fans so they have to live within their means. This often means that their manager has no choice but to promote younger players to the first team where our last few managers have either gone for buying in (I use the term loosely - as in paying them wages etc rather than a transfer fee) experience or by taking on loans from higher clubs, albeit they have not always been older or more experienced - Alex Palmer and Kell Watts spring to mind.

They have sold Grimes, Ampadu and Nichols for a total of around £2.7m plus add ons (eg £250k every time Ampadu makes 10 league appearances up to 50 - don't know how this works now he is on loan to Sheff Utd. What have we done in that time - whatever it is, it is nothing like that amount.

So, back to Jephcott. He has to be worth at least the same as Watkins but I would expect him to be worth more - something like £2.5 at the end of this season or £3.5 to £4m at the end of next season if he carries on scoring at the current rate. However, we must have a good sell on clause of 20% with add ins for appearances, international call ups etc.

I would agree with the add ons and the 20% but would say 2.5 million would be the max for him in transfer fee.

What he goes for will be dependant on how long he has left on his current deal and/or whether their are clauses in it stating he is free to talk to another club if they bid x amount of money.

potential add ons and sell n clauses and hoping he hits the milestones set will be the way we will get a great deal overall from him being sold rather than the upfront for him.

I think fans are over valuing him,

I don't necessarily disagree with the £2.5m - I am just a natural optimist (despite 30-odd years of supporting Argyle) and I think my "hoped for" extra value comes from Luke doing it in League 1 whereas Watkins scored his goals in League 2.

Imagine the value to Argyle if he scored 25 goals next season and had us promoted to the CCC? What's that worth nowadays £20 million? £2.5m with addons may get some people excited but it's a very short term view.

Tgwu wrote:

I think fans are over valuing  him,

I know what you mean as he isn't the classiest player to watch at Argyle and doesn't compare to Mayor, Hardie, Camara or even Cooper but he has an unerring ability to be in the right place at the right time, SEB had it as did BWP and goals are worth money.

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion. Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales. Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

If he is only contracted to June 2022 and keeps scoring this season....then he’d only have a year left at the end of this season. To get the maximum amount for him, he’d have to go this summer. Otherwise you’d be gambling that he keeps scoring next season and then possibly getting £1m maybe for him in the Jan window.

Best option is to try and extend his contract, but that may well prove difficult if he see’s £££ signs from elsewhere.

In my sort of twisted logic, we could almost do with him have a lean period, and as such, accepting a much improved contract with us.

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Comparisons to other players are rather a waste of time, each player would be valued on what a club is willing to pay for him and what his club is willing to accept, unless stipulated in the player's contract, like Sylvan Ebanks Blake when Wolves triggered the release cause in his contract. Such a clause is unlikely to be in LJ's contract considering he couldn't get a game 18 months ago.

ATM LJ has had one good year, for all we (and any bidder) knows he may bomb out like Taylor did, or may kick on and prove himself over a period of time-Watkins had 3 seasons under his belt before Brentford took a chance on him. And it was a chance which turned out well, unlike a similar player, Jayden Stokely, who joined PNE but has now been loaned out to Charlton.

As for Exeter City doing better deals when they sell talented youngsters, you actually need to have them to sell in the first place. ECFC are miles ahead of PAFC in this respect, and are certainly showing Argyle a thing or two in "sustainability" having a seemlngly endless conveyor belt of talent over several years, unlike Argyle. In fact, Jephcott stands out as an exception at Home Park in terms of the club developing young players, the current management appearing happy to sign journeyman players who have generally been tried and discarded by other clubs, today's addition being a prime example, with Argyle being the seventh Club the 23 year old has played for.

I just hope the "Argyle sign 2nd striker in a week" headline isn't a precursor to "Luke, an offer we couldn't turn down"

Exeter have been ahead of the curve in youth development in the last 10 years largely due to Tisdale overseeing it. Of course, the net result of it for them has purely been survival, so the pressure to produce players to sell is huge, due to its necessity for the club to survive.

Thankfully we don’t have that pressure, though Hallett is on record as stating his intentions to build up the Argyle academy year on year to redress the balance of talent coming through in our part of the world.

He'll go for a 'Plymouth price' ... stand on me.

Im sure Si will do better than Jimmy, who sold Hourihane for a pittance while his fan club cheered, he's a million plus i would say.

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Pretty much every Championship club ships money, and this has been the case for years. Those that break even either sell a gem to a bigger club, barely manage to get by off of parachute payments, or live within their means and battle relegation. Luckily there seems to be a steady stream of investors willing to gamble on pumping in enough cash to get to the Promised Land. I'd love Jephcott to stick around, but anyone thinking that we'll definitely make money if we get to the next tier is being optimistic.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Like you say, we're losing money at this level too, and our status as one of the better attended clubs is moot, for the foreseeable. At some point the person pumping cash in to make ends meet will want to cash in on Jephcott. It would be wonderful if that's after he helps us get to the Championship, smashes in another 20 goals, and moves to PL side for tens of millions, but that's all ifs, buts, and maybes. More realistically, there's going to be a price that is too good to turn down. If he goes for crap money, I'll be annoyed. If he goes for good money, we plug any immediate leaks in the finances and use the rest to strengthen the team? Well, such is life at every club outside the Premier, and probably every club outside the big 6.

Earwegoagain wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Thanks - just seeing if I can do this......

Also, for the record, I don't want to see Jephcott go but just wondered what the thoughts were and what we would consider fair value for him.

I guess I remember not thinking much of Ashley Barnes and look what he has gone on to achieve.

Mark Edwards wrote:

Earwegoagain wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Thanks - just seeing if I can do this......

Also, for the record, I don't want to see Jephcott go but just wondered what the thoughts were and what we would consider fair value for him.

I guess I remember not thinking much of Ashley Barnes and look what he has gone on to achieve.

Never really given a chance here and peter reid the football dinosaur that he was thought he was shit and pushed the club to sell him to brighton despite him having a good season there and just what we needed in league one after relegation before the admin era kicked in.. stupidity knows no bounds with what he went for and what hes worth now.

Mark Edwards wrote:

Earwegoagain wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Thanks - just seeing if I can do this......

Also, for the record, I don't want to see Jephcott go but just wondered what the thoughts were and what we would consider fair value for him.

I guess I remember not thinking much of Ashley Barnes and look what he has gone on to achieve.

Mark are you the Mark Edwards who used to go up the Far Post and was mates with Chris King and went on a few BBQs with us late 80's early 90s lol
Your age is spot on I think  ??

Edited....Dont say what we got up to lol

Apologies if you're the wrong Mark !

harvetheslayer wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Earwegoagain wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Thanks - just seeing if I can do this......

Also, for the record, I don't want to see Jephcott go but just wondered what the thoughts were and what we would consider fair value for him.

I guess I remember not thinking much of Ashley Barnes and look what he has gone on to achieve.

Mark are you the Mark Edwards who used to go up the Far Post and was mates with Chris King and went on a few BBQs with us late 80's early 90s lol
Your age is spot on I think  ??

Edited....Dont say what we got up to lol

Apologies if you're the wrong Mark !

Not guilty m'lud. I know quite a few people with the same name - common as muck we are!!

Mark Edwards wrote:

harvetheslayer wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Earwegoagain wrote:

Mark Edwards wrote:

Thicko alert - I don't know how to add my reply to a comment so it is linked to the right post!!

I don't know what being promoted to the Championship is worth in terms of extra TV money etc but it would no doubt come with higher wages and other costs.

Linking this to Jephcott, if he is convinced of our ambition then he may choose to stay and take his chances on promotion.  Alternatively, it might be that he wants to go to a "bigger" club or climb a league in order to have a better chance of getting picked for Wales.  Could also be that our owner does not want to put any more money in so wants to get a payday which will help Argyle be sustainable for a couple more seasons.

Go to the post you want to comment on and click the quote button, this will bring the reply box up for you to type into.

Thanks - just seeing if I can do this......

Also, for the record, I don't want to see Jephcott go but just wondered what the thoughts were and what we would consider fair value for him.

I guess I remember not thinking much of Ashley Barnes and look what he has gone on to achieve.

Mark are you the Mark Edwards who used to go up the Far Post and was mates with Chris King and went on a few BBQs with us late 80's early 90s lol
Your age is spot on I think  ??

Edited....Dont say what we got up to lol

Apologies if you're the wrong Mark !

Not guilty m'lud.  I know quite a few people with the same name - common as muck we are!!