On all known form Dawn Approach should win comfortably. A perfect 7 out of 7 record and he won the 2,000 Guineas impressively by 5 lengths.
His father, New Approach also won the Derby himself so the pedigree is there.
The only doubt seems to be whether he will last the mile and a half because he's been so speedy over 7 and 8 furlongs, which is what was said about New Approach befoe he won the Derby. The only difference between father and son is that New Approach wasn't quick enough to win the Guineas over a mile, he finished second.
Dawn Approach has been around Even money or slightly odds on ever since winning the Guineas, but worryingly it is drifting severely this morning and you can get 7-4 with Ladbrokes at the moment! That's either the bargain of the year or he might not have been looking good in training this week, maybe even a slight inury?
I'll be backing Battle of Marengo at 6-1 currently, and with Bet Victor they are offering your money back if Dawn Approach wins, up to a maximum of £50. That's a great offer, giving you your money back on losing bets if the hot favourite wins
To me it suggests they know something but it's a pretty good safety net if you fancy backing any other horse.
Battle of Marengo has won it's last 5 races fairly comfortably and although it hasn't looked as stylish as the favourite, it has been running over longer distances and looks certain to stay a mile and a half. It's actually beaten some pretty decent horses and it might just be that it's a grinder rather than a flashy superstar.
Aiden O'Brien also trains 5 others apart from Battle of Marengo and Ruler of the World looked really good when it won the Chester Vase, but it didn't beat anything much. It will definitely get the distance.
Mars is another of his who was favourite for the Derby all winter but it didn't run that well in the Guineas, although a mile and a half was always going to be his best distance not the mile.
There's one French runner, Ocavango, who's trainer won the Derby 2 years ago, and could be anything as it's unbeaten, but I think it wanted softer going and it should have dried out come 4pm.
One German runner, Chopin, and although the German horses have never been up to the British and Irish horses, or French come to that, there have been a couple of really top class German horses in the last few years so this could be top class. It was recently bought by a mega rich Arab for big, big money and he then paid out £75,000 to run it here. That's a lot of money but to the oil rich Arabs it might be considered loose change.
So I'm backing Battle of Marengo at 6-1 with Bet Victor because of the money back if Dawn Approach wins offer, but if Dawn Approach is 100% it should win.
I'd give Mars and Chopin eachway chances at around 12-1 and 16-1
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Fri May 31, 2013 11:39 am
so could do with a nice little interest yankee on the racing from Epsom.
